Mr. Yuki Takei (2nd-year doctoral student in the Aoki Lab) and Professor Toshiaki Aoki of the Next-Generation Digital Infrastructure Research Area received the FOSS Award Runner-up at the 23rd International Conference on Mining Software Repositories (MSR 2026).

MSR 2026 was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from April 13 to 14, 2026. Recognized as the premier venue for software analytics research, the conference was co-located with ICSE 2026 and featured state-of-the-art research on the analysis of software engineering data using a combination of data science, machine learning and artificial intelligence, and qualitative methodologies.

*Reference: MSR 2026

■Date Awarded 
April 14, 2026

■Title
Quantifying Competitive Relationships Among Open-Source Software Projects

■Authors
Yuki Takei, Toshiaki Aoki, Chaiyong Ragkhitwetsagul (Mahidol University, Thailand)

■Abstract 
Throughout the history of software, evolution has occurred in cycles of rise and fall driven by competition, and open-source software (OSS) is no exception. This cycle is accelerating, particularly in rapidly evolving domains such as web development and deep learning. However, the impact of competitive relationships among OSS projects on their survival remains unclear, and there are risks of losing a competitive edge to rivals. To address this, this study proposes a new automated method called "Mutual Impact Analysis of OSS (MIAO)" to quantify these competitive relationships. The proposed method employs a structural vector autoregressive model and impulse response functions, normally used in macroeconomic analysis, to analyze the interactions among OSS projects. In an empirical analysis involving mining and analyzing 187 OSS project groups, MIAO identified projects that were forced to cease development owing to competitive influences with up to 81% accuracy, and the resulting features supported predictive experiments that anticipate cessation one year ahead with up to 77% accuracy. This suggests that MIAO could be a valuable tool for OSS project maintainers to understand the dynamics of OSS ecosystems and predict the rise and fall of OSS projects.

■Comment
Yuki Takei: This year marks my 18th year as a software developer. Throughout my career, I have relied on open-source software in many of the products I have worked on and have greatly benefited from the contributions of the OSS community. It is therefore a great honor to receive this recognition and to have the opportunity to give back to the FOSS community through our research.

Prof. Toshiaki Aoki: Although my primary area of expertise is formal methods, which differs somewhat from this research area, both fields share a commitment to rigorous scientific approaches. In this work, we proposed a method that uses rigorous statistical analysis to derive valuable insights from open-source software data. I am deeply honored that our commitment to scientific rigor was recognized at MSR, the premier conference in this field, and acknowledged as a contribution to the FOSS community.

Asst. Prof. Chaiyong Ragkhitwetsagul: I'm deeply honored that our work has been recognized as impactful for the FOSS community at MSR 2026. The sustainability of open-source software projects is a critical concern, one that touches millions of systems built upon them. We hope this contribution helps lay the groundwork for more effective management of FOSS projects. Finally, I'm grateful to work on this project with my co-authors, whose dedication and insight made this work possible.

June 12, 2026